US central bank hikes interest rates and signals more to come, defying Trump

Central bankers are increasingly worried that inflation — worsened by soaring oil prices and an AI investment boom — is not on a path back to their 2% target.

The Federal Reserve unanimously voted Wednesday to raise interest rates for the first time in three years and signaled it might do so again this year, a move that will test the delicate relationship between President Donald Trump and his new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.

Central bankers are increasingly worried that inflation — worsened by soaring oil prices and an artificial intelligence investment boom — is not on a path back to their 2% target.

The decision comes less than seven weeks out from elections that will determine the balance of power in Congress, and as investors have already been driving long-term rates to nearly two-decade highs. The Fed’s benchmark rate is now set between 3.75% and 4%.

At a press conference following the decision, Warsh framed it against the backdrop of consumers who have been spending at a robust clip and an economy that is growing, putting upward pressure on prices.

“Consider the geopolitical landscape of shocks and uncertainty, and you begin to appreciate the resilience of the U.S. economy,” he said. “Given that resilience, and the potential for even greater performance, an attitude of optimism is exactly what I heard inside the FOMC these last two days.”

Still, he made clear that soaring oil prices, driven by the war in the Middle East, helped drive consensus toward a rate hike to suppress price increases.

Inflation remains elevated,” the central bank’s rate-setting committee said in a post-meeting statement. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.

The rate increase demonstrates the Fed’s seriousness about combating inflation, which has stood above target for more than five years, but markets are hungry for information about what comes next. Already, Wall Street is betting that more rate hikes could be in store, which would further stoke tensions with the president, who will likely be frustrated by the Fed’s action this week.

Warsh declined to say when he last spoke to the president, who has called him to talk about the economy in recent months.

“I don’t have anything for you on discussions with the president,” he said. “Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane.”

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said on Fox News that he hadn’t spoken to Trump but called the Fed’s move a “rather unfortunate decision” that was “not, from the administration’s point of view, backed by a compelling economic case.”

But he said the president is committed to the independence of the Fed.

For his part, the president posted on social media that rates should be lower but did not explicitly mention the Fed, Warsh or the rate hike.

“Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR,” he wrote. “LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!”

Trump has repeatedly called on the Fed to lower borrowing costs and regularly clashed with former central bank Chair Jerome Powell over his resistance to doing so. Still, under Powell, the Fed cut rates three times last year.

But in their latest quarterly economic projections, only two of the committee’s 19 members thought that rates should stay where they are now through the end of the year. Most forecast they would need to hike once more, and four policymakers thought two increases might be warranted.

Warsh, who has frequently criticized the practice of providing guidance about what the Fed might do in the future and publicly forecasting where the economy is headed, did not submit projections alongside his colleagues.

But the new Fed chief supported the central bank’s decision to raise borrowing costs, defying critics who worried that he would be reluctant to back such a move because of the president’s strong desire for lower rates.

The move came after the new central bank chair suggested heightened concern about the trajectory of inflation.

Warsh said the labor market is roughly at full employment and that he did not believe the Fed needed to harm it to put inflation on a better path.

“Because of the underlying strength of the economy … we can be focused on stable prices,” he said.

Michael Stratford contributed to this report.

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Original source US central bank hikes interest rates and signals more to come, defying Trump

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