To quote the “You all laughed at me. Well you’re not laughing now.” One wonders if Kemi Badenoch is saying those words to herself this morning, ad nauseam.

Because for rather a long time, Reform have parroted the notion that the Tories were yesterday’s business. The Conservatives, we were repeatedly told, were finished. Dead. Expelled to the political wilderness, certain to become nothing but a rump in any future parliament. Reform, meanwhile, were a government in waiting and Farage was supposedly on his way to Downing Street.

But oh how times change. An MRP poll released by YouGov this morning yes, I had to completely rewrite this TD in a panic) shows that Reform would win fewer seats than both the Conservatives and Labour were a General Election to be called.

The numbers suggest that the UK would face a hung parliament, with Labour on 241 seats, the Tories on 130 and Reform on 123 – a far cry from the supposed wipeout that Farage and his flock have been suggesting for quite some time. Compared to the MRP poll conducted a year ago – Reform have plummeted from a high of 311, and the Tories have risen from the depths of 45 seats. 

Of course, we mustn’t go bonkers over this. It is still a poll, and – as the great once said in 2024 – it may well be “just another poll, another MRP model, with the same margins of error, the same statistical limitations as any other.” Yes, this is just another poll – but “differs from conventional polling methods” “enables election forecasters to more accurately predict how many seats each party will win.”

Unlike, say, a poll commissioned by a certain party to push a particular narrative (who would do that?), MRP polling takes into account the complexities of First Past the Post, and thus enables a far more accurate picture to be drawn.

So yes, this is but considering that it mirrors more ‘conventional’ polls – we shouldn’t scoff at the findings. But whilst I would very much like to obsess over these numbers for the remainder of this editorial (both Jenrick and Braverman are predicted to lose their seats. Ha.) there are two things which deserve some level of discussion.

The first is that this poll proves, beyond any doubt, that Kemi Badenoch the right person to lead the Conservative Party, and reversing our fortunes. Reform can hurl as many insults as they want at her, and people may – for some, unknown reason – question her decision to drink tea the ‘Nigerian way’, but she has steadied the Conservative ship in rather perilous times, and for that she should be applauded. 

But the other topic of concern is a coalition with Reform. I have always maintained that a coalition with Reform would be disastrous – mirroring the final days of Lloyd George’s Liberals in the 1920s. To jump into bed with a party that so utterly wants to see you destroyed would be conceivable only if we had some type of masochistic streak about us.

The most common argument in favour of a coalition or partnership – that it would prevent a progressive coalition with our Andy at the helm – has been shot down on account of this poll. The numbers show that, even if an agreement were to be reached in some way, the right simply wouldn’t have the seats necessary to make a majority. It wouldn’t add up, one and one don’t make 326.

I must say, I’ve been rather thrown off by this poll’s findings. I’m normally a cynical, downbeat chap who prepares for the worst possible outcome – and yet this poll has forced me to be rather optimistic, and I’m sure many reading this will be filled with a similar feeling. 

But we mustn’t let that optimism cloud our judgement. If we take the foot off the pedal now, this will have all been for nothing. This is a party that has existed for close to two centuries, and, over the last 18 months, we have teetered on the edge of political extinction far more than I would have ideally liked. If we relax now, we risk that future, and we risk falling onto the wrong side of that edge.

It’s probably something that doesn’t need to be said. Nobody, (one hopes) is stupid enough to kick their feet up and pretend that the job is now done. Because whilst this poll shows that we will trump Reform, we still fall well behind Labour, and there will be many who perceive a Liberal, Green and Labour coalition as far worse than a Labour majority government.

The only way to stop that is to keep on at it, and to win back the trust of enough voters that a coalition on the left becomes impossible. I have no doubt that Kemi Badenoch is the right person to ensure that happens. 

I also have a hunch that a snap election may, if this poll is anything to go by, be off the cards now. The argument for a spring election was that Burnham would be able to return a majority Labour government – albeit a rather thin one. This poll suggests that this is no longer possible. Burnham would be forced to enter into talks with Ed Davey and others, if he were serious about propping up a left-of-centre coalition. To throw away a majority in return for a coalition seems silly, but alas I’m not in the King of the North’s head, and nor do I really want to be.

In keeping with my pessimistic tone, we must take this poll not only as a vindication of the direction our party has gone over the last year or so, but also as a warning about contentment and self-satisfaction. I have long warned about the . Let us not succumb to it now after all this hard work. Please.