Labour's flagship changes to special education in England are at risk of unravelling because parents are rushing to secure support for their children before the system changes, new analysis has found.

The Institute for Government (IfG) thinktank says the government's plans to largely replace education, health and care plans (EHCPs) in England with more widespread support in mainstream schools may be too optimistic and take longer to complete than its 2030 timeline.

The thinktank's report calls on the government to review the timetable for the changes. And it suggests that if ministers do not act they "risk basing both their reforms and spending plans on assumptions that the system cannot deliver".

The news will be seen as a sign that the government's ambitious plans to overhaul the special education system did not reckon with the scale of worry among parents, many of whom appear to have acted to ensure support and avoid uncertainty in the future.

The Guardian recently reported that councils and schools have reported a surge in applications for EHCPs, with one school describing the level as "unreal" compared with previous years. Several councils are now projecting that at the current rates of increase, nearly one in 10 pupils will have an EHCP by 2029.

Amber Dellar, the author of the IfG report out this week, said the long rollout of the changes created a "moral hazard" that encouraged parents to apply for EHCPs now rather than wait for the new system.

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The foreign secretary, ⁠Ed Miliband, has said Britain's consulate general ⁠building in ⁠East Jerusalem ​will not be closing but will ⁠be known as a UK mission, remaining independent, operational ⁠and serving Palestinian people.

Israel had ​ordered the ‌British consulate ‌in East Jerusalem to close ‌on Thursday over the UK's plans to impose sanctions on settlements in the West Bank.

Miliband said that having ‌withdrawn a number of staff and families in recent ​weeks, it would now work to build up its presence.

He said Britain would ⁠not take any reciprocal action ​against Israel ​while the ​two sides engaged in ​talks, ‌following speculation it ​could expel some Israeli diplomats from Britain.

Diplomats from other western countries had been worried about any closure setting a precedent, and suggested Britain had to respond strongly to the Israeli move because it had implications beyond the immediate dispute.

The consulate is separate from the UK embassy, based in Tel Aviv, and has a distinct diplomatic role, covering East Jerusalem, the rest of the West Bank and Gaza, where it provides consular services to Palestinians.

Israel had threatened to close it in protest at the UK's decision to ban trade in goods from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. Israel's foreign minister, Gideon Sa'ar, said Britain's ‌decision to impose sanctions was "morally distorted" and accused the governing Labour party of being hostile towards his country.

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The French finance minister, Roland Lescure, said the UK could rejoin the EU "anytime" after Andy Burnham indicated a major review ofBritain's relationship with the bloc.

Lescure said it was up to the British public whether to return to the EU, telling the BBC that "if they're willing to come back, they will have to decide".

"But what I can tell them is: come back, anytime," he added. has the full report here.

As our political correspondent reported last week, the prime minister opened the door to the UK rejoining the EU, saying Britain could "go all the way" as he prepares to reconsider Labour's post-Brexit red lines.

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Good morning and welcome to our UK politics live blog.

Polls have opened in Keir Starmer's old seat in Holborn and St Pancras, where the Green party leader, is hoping to break Labour's longstanding grip in the north London constituency.

He might have his work cut out for him. Labour's is projected to retain the seat in today's byelection, but the party shouldn't take victory for granted. As the Guardian's senior political correspondent, , reports, Polanski has mounted an intensive campaign, but the scale of the challenge is clear from the numbers. Starmer won the seat by 11,500 votes in 2024, after Labour majorities of nearly 28,000 in 2019 and more than 30,500 in 2017.

You can read Peter's report from this morning here:

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