Mélenchon won nearly 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2022 presidential election in the district that includes the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis. Turnout was 61.2%, whereas the national average was 73.7%. 

And France Unbowed scored its biggest-ever victory there when its candidate, Bally Bagayoko, scored a decisive victory in local elections earlier this year, netting more than 50% of the vote in the first round and negating the need for a runoff.

But Mélenchon remains a divisive figure. Seventy-three percent of those polled by Cluster17 earlier this month said there was little to no chance they would ever vote for the France Unbowed leader. Only 62% felt the same way about Le Pen.

“France Unbowed has built a strong, cross-class core,” said a parliamentarian for the rival center-left Socialist Party, who was granted anonymity to discuss his opponents’ campaign. “But enlarging their base seems very difficult.”

As things stand, Mélenchon’s strategy of zooming in on voters who are most likely to vote for him appears to be tracing a path towards the runoff. On the flip side, polling indicates that he would lose by a significant margin against Le Pen in a second round — though pollsters and political scientists urge caution when it comes to polling a runoff so early in a campaign.

“You need to take things one step at a time. Running a runoff campaign before the first round is a grave mistake that has cost several favorites their election in the past,” said Antoine Léaument, a France Unbowed lawmaker and strategist.