Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com
My latest focus groups took place in the central London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras, where nominations had just closed for the by-election to replace Keir Starmer. Our participants had all voted Labour in 2024, contributing to Starmer’s majority of 11,572 over independent candidate Andrew Feinstein, who is not standing in the by-election and has endorsed Green leader Zack Polanski, Labour’s main challenger.
The groups thought Starmer had been a committed and visible local MP, and most sympathised with his decision to step down despite his assurances that he would stay: “One you’ve had to quit being prime minister, you’ve kind of failed politically;” “I think it was probably difficult for him to stick around.”
“My only concern is that he’s trying to be too much a man of the people and too cool and too Manchester”
They were less impressed with his record in government, however: “Keir made some bad mistakes straight out of the starting blocks and just gave ammunition to the other side”; “It wasn’t that he didn’t care about issues that a lot of Labour voters care about, but he just didn’t get it across;” “I feel really strongly about the whole Palestine thing, and he’s not said enough about that as far as I’m concerned. Even Ed Miliband saying what he said the other day, it feels a bit like a token gesture, a bit late in the day to try and garner votes.”
Most said Starmer had been right to step down, and many thought Andy Burnham seemed like an improvement, at least in presentational terms. Others were more sceptical but were giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. “At least Burnham is a good communicator. He’s making a lot of the right noises, but we shall see;” “I think there’s more hope and optimism;” “My only concern is that he’s trying to be too much a man of the people and too cool and too Manchester and rock star, and there was that whole thing about making the perfect cup of tea. You have to do some of those things to get attention, but you also need to be seen as serious;” “It’s all well and good, the amount of money he wants to spend on certain initiatives, but where’s the money coming from? Is he going to put taxes up and go back on the manifesto?” “I think he’s got better energy, better presentation, but the slate isn’t wiped clean because there are a lot of people who feel disenchanted, like me.”
“People feel less safe. Just that sense of lawlessness”
If people were waiting to see whether Burnham would deliver, it seemed to them less urgent to signal their dissatisfaction with Labour nationally. Many of the issues they said would influence their by-election vote were local. One of these was crime and antisocial behaviour: “It’s out of control. Bikes charging down the pavement, people feeling less safe. Just that sense of lawlessness;” “Crime has got worse, especially the King’s Cross, Euston, Somers Town area. They don’t hide and sell drugs anymore. It’s out in the open. We had to fight to get fences put up so prostitutes and people don’t defecate under the blocks where the kids play;” “The guards the council pay to look after the parks don’t get out of their cars.”
Another issue was housing and homelessness, on which participants often pointed to the performance of Camden Council: “There are something like 350 empty council properties in Camden. Some of the have been empty for two years;” “As someone who lives in a Camden council property, I’ve had numerous issues with mold and damp and things like that. It was affecting my son’s health and he’s got asthma. In the end I had to take it to a solicitor because it got ignored and ignored. They were like, OK, we’ll fix it, but they didn’t fix it.”
This was not particularly good news for Labour’s by-election candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, the leader of Camden Council and former cabinet member for housing: “Talking about the housing stuff, I don’t have much confidence in her personally, but then I don’t have much in any of them;” “She’s been working in the council for ages. She’s not new;” “They say she’s all about the community and all that kind of stuff, but she didn’t do her job very well as the head. It doesn’t give me much confidence how well she’ll do as a local MP;” “There’s a lot of hope and glory and positivity, but it’s like, what does this mean? What are you going to do?”
“Just because you look like me doesn’t mean you’re any good”
Several had noted that Labour seemed keen to focus on Abdi-Wali’s identity and her status as a former refugee: “They’ve really pushed the fact that she came as an immigrant. That was the headline all the way through, and ‘they love me around here’. It was mainly that she was from an immigrant family. And I was like, great, well, we all are somewhere along the line, but what are you going to do? Just because you look like me doesn’t mean you’re any good;” “Apparently she’s beloved in Camden. Well, I’ve lived in Camden for 25 years and I’d never heard of her until I saw the leaflet;” “If I was being really cynical, God forbid, I would say that they’re using her. ‘Here’s a lovely Muslim woman who came as a refugee, blah de blah’.”
“He comes across as quite disingenuous”
At the same time, the groups had plenty of scepticism to spare for her main opponent. A number of participants said they had been interested in Polanski party earlier in the year but had since had their doubts: “I was much more tuned into the Greens around May time, because I was feeling fed up with Keir. But to be honest, I can’t remember half what they were saying and I’ve moved away from them again. I can’t pinpoint any of their arguments;” “There are a couple of holes in his CV as well;” “He was a clown of a hypnotherapist. He did some strange things in the past about making women’s breasts bigger;” “He’s shot himself in the foot quite a lot. There was not paying council tax, wanting to pull out of NATO… he’s not coming across as someone I could trust;” “He comes across as quite disingenuous;” “Today he’s done a little tweet in Urdu. Urdu is hardly spoken in Camden. You’d have been better doing French, Spanish, Bengali. Those are the languages. But you chose Urdu because you’re just virtue signalling.”
“It’s supposed to be about the environment, but when was the last time you heard them talk about that? They’re dealing more in gender politics”
There were also doubts about the Greens’ policy agenda, which several noted had moved away from concern for the environment: “They’ve moved towards more socialist policies than green policies. He’s talking to young people who are fed up with student loans, the fact that they can’t leave home or get jobs, more than he’s talking to traditional green voters;” “It’s supposed to be about the grass, the air, the environment, but when was the last time you heard them talk about that? They’re dealing more in gender politics and stuff like that rather than the environment, which is more important in my opinion.”
While some were worried that the government might allow new drilling in the North Sea, there were also questions about the Greens’ approach to energy: “If Zack would knock on my door, I would ask how they intend to bridge the gap between fossil fuels and renewables. You’ve only got two choices, dig up the North Sea or ship it in, and then it’s which is more economically viable or the least environmentally damaging. But we can’t just pretend there’s a switch that goes from one to the other and I don’t think they’ve told us.”
“They don’t seem to have any consistency”
Some were concerned about Polanski’s stance on gender issues: “What he’s done to a lot of the women in his party is outrageous. He’s spent a million pounds of Green party money going to court. There are gender critical women in his party who have been ousted for having an opinion. He’s also gone on record as saying he will ignore the Supreme Court Judgment in For Women Scotland, which just defined what the Equality Act meant. He was asked on the radio if women should be allowed single-sex spaces if they’ve been raped and he said no, we should allow trans women in. But there are some instances where sex actually matters.”
Some felt that the Green party had lost momentum since its local election successes and victory at Gorton and Denton: “They probably felt there was a lot of bashing to be done when Keir was being bashed by everybody. Now everyone is loving Burnham, I feel they step away because they haven’t got that easy target;” “That’s what happens with the Greens. People get excited about it and then it kind of goes. They don’t seem to hold. They’re a bit wishy-washy. They don’t seem to have any consistency.”
Despite all this, several participants said they would consider voting Green in the by-election: “I’d be in the market. Whether or not I buy is a different question;” “The country spent twenty years dragging the mainstream political debate over to the right. It needs to be dragged over to the left just to be centred;” “I might end up going Green. This woman, her working reputation is silence. Well I’ll tell you what, Polanski won’t be silent.”
“We can be very smug in our belief that we live in a lovely left-wing borough with lovely left-wing people”
Though none of our participants were tempted to vote for , several thought the party’s attraction to working-class voters could have an impact on the by-election: “I think we can be very smug in our belief that we live in a lovely left-wing borough with lovely left-wing people. We don’t. Don’t be surprised if Reform split the vote. It’s disgruntled working-class people;” “I work in a state primary school and more and more people, maybe not teachers but support staff and people who work in the office, are turning more right-wing. It doesn’t make sense to me, but it’s drawing them. I think they’re getting people they shouldn’t, but that’s what’s happening;” “I used to think they were a bunch of racists, but then I looked at things and they are pushing Britain first. Well British people, English people, if people are being housed all around you while your house has still got mushrooms growing in it, you can sort of see it.”
“The Greens have a nice touchy-feely name, and there’s a lot of touchy-feely people in Camden”
With three weeks to go, the groups tended to think Labour would hold on to the seat: “Everyone around here is traditional Labour and their families always have been. A lot of working-class people have been Labour, and the half-hippies in the more affluent areas, they’re all Labour as well”. But some disagreed, and few thought the result was a foregone conclusion: “I think some people would be interested just to see Polanski as an MP. Just see how it goes;” “I think Polanski will win because he’s put everything on the line for this. And the Greens have a nice touchy-feely name, and there’s a lot of touchy-feely people in Camden.” Some admitted they would leave the decision to others: “I might give it a miss. I don’t have a lot of faith in politicians. Whoever comes in has got an uphill battle. Whether or not they have the minerals to come through and sort out the borough, I highly doubt.”