In the end, the race was not as close as some pundits anticipated. Labour comfortably held Holborn and St Pancras, with Camden council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali defeating Green leader Zack Polanski in a result that will bring relief to Andy Burnham and his government.
The result, especially Labour’s 12-point margin of victory, will be a setback for the Greens after their concerted campaign to win Keir Starmer’s former constituency – and suggests Labour can win back voters who had been tempted away from the party by challengers on both sides of the political spectrum.
Before votes had even been counted, More in Common’s Luke Tryl noted that, since Burnham became leader, increasing numbers of voters see Labour as the main party on the left again – a perspective that will be crucial in battles with Reform across the country.
Combined with Burnham’s own by-election in Makerfield, Labour is truly back as an electable force again. But the context of this result matters. Holborn and St Pancras has long been a safe Labour seat – yet the party’s majority has fallen from over 30,000 to a little over 3,000 in the span of less than a decade.
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The result is no doubt a missed opportunity for the Greens. Their rise in the polls, encapsulated by the Gorton and Denton by-election, has hit the buffers in the wake of the controversial ‘Zionism is racism’ motion – and Polanski now faces his own internal battles around his leadership.
However, it would be a mistake to write off the Greens. The 13-point swing to the party last night would be enough for Labour to lose seats like Huddersfield, Bristol South, Brighton Kemptown and Sheffield Central, while pushing others like Leeds Central and Headingley and Manchester Rusholme on a knife-edge. A result less close than some feared does not erase the Green’s wider gains, or the challenge they pose to Labour if Burnham’s goodwill among voters wanes.
For now, Labour can take comfort in holding off Polanski and welcoming a stellar new MP to its ranks on the government benches. But Burnham’s challenge is to turn this reprieve into something more lasting: addressing the frustrations that have driven voters to both the Greens and Reform before those forces threaten Labour from both sides once again.
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