is a commentator, a Senior Researcher for the City Hall Conservatives, and a former Association Chairman.

At school I had a maths teacher who once explained Game Theory in terms of how to win a game of Chicken.

If you aren’t aware of ‘Chicken’, the rules are that two drivers drive towards each other and the car – or, if you’re Kevin Bacon in Footloose, the tractor – which doesn’t swerve wins. Mr Leamon explained that the best way to win a game of Chicken is to remove your steering wheel and throw it out of your window, making sure that your opponent sees exactly what you have done. If you make it impossible to swerve, and your opponent knows you cannot swerve, then he or she will swerve and you will win.

Kemi Badenoch has been repeatedly and consistently clear that the Conservative Party has no interest in doing any sort of deal or pact with Reform. However, her clarity has not stopped some commentators from continuing to speculate on how the Right might unite. Some have claimed that even if Conservatives avoid a deal with Reform ahead of the next General Election, they may be forced to do a deal by the arithmetic of a hung Parliament. Again, this has been put to the Leader of the Opposition on multiple occasions, and we should take Kemi at her word when she says she would choose a second General Election instead.

One of the advantages of this approach is that it means the Conservative Party is well-placed to gain the maximum benefit from anti-Reform tactical voting at the General Election. We know that Nigel Farage remains extravagantly and deservedly unpopular, with 69% of British people having an unfavourable view of him, and that more people would vote against Reform than any other Party (although expect both Andy Burnham and Labour to become more competitive in the unpopularity stakes over the coming months and years as they refuse to take the difficult decisions required to turn around the economy).

In a General Election where Labour and Reform are both unpopular, there is a clear opportunity for the Conservatives to run a campaign in which they urge the public to ‘Kick out Labour, Keep out Reform and back us to fix the economy’. Judging by how frequently Ed Davey tries to link Reform and the Conservatives together, it is clear that the Liberal Democrats understand the danger to them of voters in Lib Dem-held seats switching to the Conservatives for precisely that reason. However, once Kemi has thrown the steering wheel out of the window, it would be disastrous to renege on the pledge not to work with Reform post-election. In other words, the Conservative Party cannot seek to gain votes from people who want to stop Reform, only to shack up with Reform as soon as the election is done.

Given that, it is worth looking at how such a scenario would or could work in practice. As all Conservative Home readers will already know, a Party needs 326 MPs for a majority of two. However, assuming Sinn Fein keep their 7 MPs and continue not to take their seats, then 322 means an effective majority of one. Ideally the Conservatives would gain a majority and Kemi would become Prime Minister. However, let us picture a scenario in which the Conservatives are the largest Party, but short of a majority. For the sake of argument let’s say the final tally stood as follows (I’m assuming/hoping that the Gaza Independents and Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party are wiped out, but if you think otherwise then take six seats off Labour’s total):

Northern Ireland – 18

Obviously these numbers are hypothetical. However the key points are a) the Conservatives are the largest Party in this scenario, b) Conservatives plus Reform would have more than 326 seats and c) a Labour-led coalition would need to include Reform to give them a majority. In that case the Conservatives would technically have three options: a coalition with Reform (which Kemi has ruled out), a Confidence and Supply motion (in which Reform would agree to support the Conservatives on confidence votes and, as per the 2015-17 agreement with the DUP, “on the Queen’s Speech; the Budget; finance bills; money bills, supply and appropriation legislation and Estimates” but would not be part of the Government) or a Minority Government.

In this scenario Reform might want to be the tail, wagging the dog. Nigel Farage might assume that he could insist on control of a couple of ministerial departments or, perhaps, a veto on what legislation a Conservative Government proposed. It would clearly be a huge mistake to even entertain this possibility. To reiterate, a Conservative Party which had promised no deals or pacts with Reform ahead of the General Election – and which had gained votes and seats based on that promise – should not make any deals or pacts after the election. Instead Kemi should form a minority Government, put forward a King’s Speech and dare Reform to vote it down. If Reform chose to vote against tax cuts, deficit reduction, the slashing of job-destroying red tape, 10,000 extra Police Officers, 50,000 new prison places and measures to stop illegal immigration then Reform would have to live with the electoral consequences.

If Reform brought down a Conservative minority Government then Kemi would be able to go back to the country and tell people that she had put in place bills that would have materially improved our country and that Reform had refused to back them. Reform would no longer be able to hide behind their claim that the Conservatives could not be trusted to deliver, because it would be incredibly clear which Party was at fault.

Alternatively, Reform could choose to support the King’s Speech. The Government would then last longer but, once the fruits of that initial legislation could be seen, Prime Minister Badenoch would be able to go back to the people for a second General Election asking for a majority so a Conservative Government could go further and faster in cleaning up Labour’s mess and delivering for the country.

Kemi Badenoch’s strategy is absolutely right. She’s right not to entertain any sort of deal with Reform and she’s right to tell the public incredibly clearly, again and again, that she will not do any sort of deal with Reform. Voters needed to know she will drive straight and not swerve. Now they know.