“On the one hand, all countries want to support their national industries,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told lawmakers in September, asked about European defense cooperation following FCAS's collapse. “At the same time, everyone ... also wants joint European armaments projects,” he said. “Resolving this dilemma is no simple matter.”

Berlin's overarching goal is to become less dependent on American military technology. And while that ambition predates Washington's increasingly unpredictable approach to European security, President Donald Trump’s threats to leave NATO and criticism of allies have raised the stakes.

At a campaign rally last week, the U.S. president warned that America would have “no choice but to leave” Europe — implying American troops on bases — if its leaders failed to change course on immigration. He also criticized NATO allies for refusing to support Washington’s war against Iran.

Ukraine’s recent difficulties with American-controlled SpaceX satellite communications, delays in deliveries of American-made air defense missiles and problems with intelligence sharing have also highlighted how countries relying on U.S. technology can remain vulnerable to decisions made in Washington. 

The fighter jet decision is the most immediate test of a broader effort: Germany is also planning its own military satellite communications network that could cost €10 billion, and is working with Britain to develop European long-range missiles capable of striking targets more than 2,000 kilometers away. It also aims to meet NATO’s core defense spending target of 3.5 percent of GDP by 2029 — six years ahead of the alliance’s deadline.

But spending more will not automatically make it militarily independent. Germany cannot develop every advanced weapon by itself, so it needs partners that can deliver military capabilities while giving Germany a lasting role in developing and controlling them.