Around 3,000 listings, including Usmanov’s, are at risk of expiring Tuesday after Paris withheld its support for the renewal. Three diplomats, all of whom were granted anonymity to describe the private discussions, said capitals remained deeply divided, despite France’s pledge to establish guardrails to assuage concerns that the move could undermine the sanctions regime more broadly.

Two other diplomats said EU capitals were likely to agree to extend the sanctions — for a period as long as 36 months — as part of a compromise with countries seeking delisting.

Envoys are due to meet again Monday afternoon after consulting their capitals. A decision to remove Usmanov — whose business empire spans mining, telecommunications and media — from the list could allow him to move money in and out of the EU, do business with European firms and potentially travel to the bloc.

Luxembourg has continued to call for the delisting of Ukrainian-born, Russian-Israeli tycoon Mikhail Fridman, who is suing the country for the release of frozen assets.

At a meeting last week that ended in stalemate, capitals expressed concern that removing one prominent billionaire from the list would set a dangerous precedent.

France has declined to explain its motivations publicly or privately. Diplomats said only that the move relates to “a specific national security issue” and that Paris “wishes to respond positively to international partners who have approached us regarding Mr. Usmanov.” The Financial Times reported that his delisting could form part of a deal under which Azerbaijan would release detained French nationals.

Brussels imposed financial and travel restrictions on Usmanov in 2022 as it unveiled sanctions on businesspeople and politicians involved in “undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine,” citing his alleged material support for Russia’s war. Usmanov rejects those charges along with his depiction as an oligarch, and has campaigned to be removed from the list.