“How the world plays out when you actually live it, I don’t know,” they added. “We’ll just have to make whatever decision we think is in the best interests of the country at the time.”

Tiny changes to vote share would mean big changes to seat numbers in the multi-party world: “1% is the new 5%,” as a fourth shadow cabinet minister put it. A poll of 15,765 people by the firm More in Common suggests the balance of seats will be highly volatile depending on how badly the vote splits between parties of the right.

The self-funded survey, dated Aug. 21 to Sept. 21, projected Labour would be the largest party by far on 250 seats — ahead of Reform UK on 147 and the Tories on 125. A mere three- to four-point swing from the Conservatives to Reform or vice versa, however, would put either of those parties ahead of Labour.

The Conservatives and Reform attract different demographics of voter, though; a More in Common poll of 2,041 people on Sept. 25-29 found that those on the lowest incomes were more likely to back Reform than the Tories (23% to 20%), and for those on the highest incomes it was the other way round (23% to 13%).

This suggests there will be many seats where Labour comes through the middle and wins on a low vote share, like it did in 2024, said More in Common Executive Director Luke Tryl. Tryl added: “We’ll especially see this if Burnham manages to recreate Jeremy Corbyn’s 2017 coalition of Labour and Green supporters, tapping into that 40% of voters. It wasn’t enough for Corbyn to win a majority, but with a split right, it’d definitely be enough for Burnham.”

Hence both the Tories and Reform — wary of a tactical voting stampede — are arguing they are the best choice to win outright. Yusuf told GB News Tuesday: “It is clear the only party of the right that has a serious chance of a majority in parliament is Reform.”