Zack Polanski also insisted his authority as leader of the Green party of England and Wales does not depend on winning next week's Holborn and St Pancras byelection, amid suggestions that the party's popularity has peaked.

Polanski, who is trying to take Keir Starmer's former seat from Labour, described the contest as "probably 50/50 right now" and "really on a knife edge".

Asked in an interview with the Guardian how much his position as leader depended on victory, Polanski said: "It doesn't depend on it whatsoever."

He added that the election had ramifications for politics nationally but "not for my leadership".

"I'll be completely honest, it won't surprise you to know that I want to win the seat," Polanski said. "I think the seat is winnable, and I think it's probably 50-50 right now. It's really, really on a knife edge."

Senior Green party figures privately fear defeat in Holborn and St Pancras could severely damage Polanski's leadership, amid concerns the party's rapid rise in membership and polling hasn't translated into strong campaigning strength on the ground.

Zack Polanski has said his Green party is transforming the political landscape as it kicks off what is expected to be its largest-ever conference.

The three-day annual gathering starting today in Brighton comes just days before the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, where Polanski faces an uphill battle to win the seat vacated by former prime minister Keir Starmer.

The party had considered postponing its conference while its leader campaigns for the 8 October vote, triggered by Starmer's departure from parliament last month. But it decided to press ahead with the event, which Polanski will address at 1.30pm today.

In a statement on Thursday, he said:

Greens have turned hope into electoral wins – in councils, boroughs, in mayoral elections and with our exciting breakthrough in Gorton and Denton.

We have shown that Greens can win in places where Labour has traditionally taken voters for granted. And we have shown that when Greens win, the Labour government listens – whether that's finally banning trade with illegal settlements or starting to open safe routes for refugees.

Polanksi added:

But our work is just beginning. Rising bills, insecure work, pressure on public services and communities that feel forgotten have left many people wondering whether politics can actually make their lives better.

The last year has shown that the Green party can transform the political landscape – now our task is to step up our wins and keep the pressure on this government to secure genuine change in people's everyday lives.

We will bring you all the top lines from Polanski's conference speech at 1.30pm so stay tuned for that.

Robert Jenrick has confronted an alleged shoplifter in a video posted on social media, telling him prices rise when people steal from shops.

Reform UK's Treasury spokesman on Friday vowed to confront shoplifters, writing on X that "parts of the country are feral", PA reported. In the video, filmed in Brixton, south London, Mr Jenrick approached a man carrying a Dr Pepper bottle, telling him: "I think you just nicked that, didn't you?"

The man denied stealing the drink but handed the bottle to Jenrick, who asked: "Why do you think you're above the law?"

The alleged thief replied: "Because they always give us drinks."

Jenrick continued to challenge the man, asking him questions such as:

Why do you think you don't have to pay for things? The effect of what you're doing is that everyone else's food and drink just goes up in price, and do you think other people can afford that round here?

Everyone's finding life tough at the moment. You're nicking stuff, sounds like all the time, and [it] just makes everyone else's lives more expensive.

The video ended with Jenrick taking the bottle to a bakery. He told the shop assistant it was stolen and put the Dr Pepper in a drinks fridge.

Ministers are working up sweeping plans for welfare changes including scrapping a key disability benefit for under-25s and replacing it with a multibillion-pound package of support to get into work, the Guardian has learned.

Whitehall sources said the package of changes under debate was much bigger than previously thought, as Andy Burnham's government hopes to persuade more people on benefits back into work.

The move could be fraught with political danger after last year's dramatic welfare rebellion by Labour MPs. But ministers have spent weeks trying to persuade them the plans are about reform, and feel confident opposition has waned.

The plans are still awaiting the conclusions of reviews by Alan Milburn, who is looking at young people's employment, and the Timms panel, which is examining the personal independence payment (Pip), a non-means-tested benefit that helps sick and disabled people with support costs.

However, a central option under consideration for young people is removing the health element of universal credit for claimants under 25, which has already been almost halved to £217 a month, and offering intensive support for people to get into work. The possibility of removing it for existing claimants – not just new ones – is being looked at.

Senior Labour figures are privately voicing unease about John Healey's approach to his crucial first budget this month, against the backdrop of volatile global markets and soaring energy costs.

The chancellor's work has been made significantly harder by the global bond sell-off, which continues to raise the cost of government borrowing, and ever increasing energy prices as Donald Trump continues the US war with Iran.

The yield – in effect the interest rate – on 30-year UK government bonds hit 6% on Thursday for the first time since 1998. Barclays raised some of its mortgage rates for the second time in a week, underlining the impact of these market moves on UK borrowers.

The chancellor's party conference speech, which centred on the theme of reindustrialisation, was warmly received by Labour members in Liverpool. But government insiders and other Labour figures cast doubt over the lack of detail about policy on investment and growth or any pitch-rolling for possible tax rises.

One senior Labour politician said: "I missed any real sense of growth and investment, which Rachel [Reeves, the former chancellor] often emphasised, despite her faults – when business leaders speak to me, that's what they were waiting to hear, and we got nothing."

A Labour MP lamented the fact that on tax and spending Healey had gone little further than reiterating the fiscal rules. "It was Rachel's speech delivered by John," they said.

One senior Labour insider said they believed the chancellor was risking a fresh market shock on 28 October if he was not willing to be clearer about his approach to taxation, headroom and spending.

Restrictions placed on prisoners who have been released early from jail are sufficient, a government minister has said, as he was pressed on how effective they are.

Transport minister Keir Mather said the government's responsibility is to "protect the public" as he emphasised the conditions placed on people being released are robust. He also denied the early release scheme would be indefinite.

He told Times Radio:

What we're trying to do at the moment is build a system where we respond to the shortage of prison places on the prison estate, whilst making sure that when these people are released they do not have their freedom.

There are very robust processes to ensure that once these prisoners are released they are tagged, work closely with victims and their families to consult them directly to draw exclusion zones, there are restrictions on where prisoners who are released can go.

Yesterday prisoners thanked Andy Burnham as they celebrated walking free from jail early.

The first wave of releases began on Thursday, with 700 offenders walking out across England and Wales under the government's plan to ease prison overcrowding

People should not worry about diesel shortages, the government has said, amid pressure from the US for European countries to use their reserves.

Transport minister Keir Mather said Britain's supply of diesel was "robust" and "resilient" and the country had a wide range of sources. Britain joined crisis talks with Brussels on Thursday, as they discussed whether to release fuel stocks amid rocketing prices.

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said European countries should "immediately" begin to use their reserves. Earlier on Thursday US president Donald Trump had told reporters he "may" call for European countries to draw down from their reserves.

Mather told Sky News on Friday:

I want to reassure people this morning that the United Kingdom has got a diverse range of supply when it comes to diesel. We have resilience built into our system for that reason.

We are working very closely with our US counterparts to stress the importance of that relationship, and the importance of sustaining flows of diesel around the world, but also working through international fora in the International Energy Agency and partners in Europe from whom we get a proportion of our diesel imports as well.

He added:

Although prices have gone up at the pump, the government is aware of that and the freeze in fuel duty is still in place.

People shouldn't be concerned about shortages because of the inherent resilience that is built into that system.

A recent lobbyist for the controversial $450bn US tech company Palantir played a senior role in helping Andy Burnham become prime minister, it has emerged.

Martha Dalton, whose company Lodestone worked for Palantir in 2024 and 2025, campaigned for Burnham in the Makerfield byelection that secured his return to parliament. She worked closely with his team on strategic communications and rebuttals, and was among supporters who clapped him into Downing Street in July.

Lodestone, which Dalton co-founded, worked for Palantir on projects including promoting its software at events in parliament where its engineers demonstrated AI-powered systems for use in British public services to MPs.

Dalton previously worked on the autumn 2025 deputy leadership campaign for the current education secretary, Lucy Powell, a few months after Lodestone stopped working for Palantir.

Her role emerged as Palantir fights to retain its £330m contract with NHS England to run the federated data platform, a national medical data system.

Burnham's government is under pressure to scrap the deal. Campaigners are angry about Palantir's work for the Israeli military in Gaza and Donald Trump's ICE immigration crackdown. They have also raised concerns, acknowledged by NHS England's chief executive, Jim Mackey, that the benefits to public health may not be as significant as has been claimed.

Zack Polanski is expected to call for a triple lock-style guarantee for private renters at his party's annual conference in Brighton today, to ease young adults' housing costs.

The Green party leader's speech will set out plans for a "three-year emergency brake", which would temporarily limit rent rises to the lowest of either Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation, wage growth or 2%.

"For too long, landlords have been able to hike prices way beyond wages," Polanski is expected to say. He will describe "25-year-olds who can't find a job, no matter how many tens or hundreds of applications they put in, who can't imagine ever being able to afford to rent even a room of their own, never mind being able to put down roots in their own home".

The party leader will also describe "30, 35-year-olds moving back to their parents' place with their partners in tow, sometimes their kids too", warning that for many of them "times get tougher and those months turn to years".

Polanski is expected to say:

Today I'm calling for a three-year emergency brake on private rents – no rent rises above CPI, wage growth or 2% – whichever is lower. No sudden hikes, no evictions under the guise of rent rises, no more fear and uncertainty.

That emergency brake would give renters vital breathing space. Let wages begin to catch up with the rents that have outstripped them for too long.

And give government time to develop a national fair rents guarantee – to keep rents fair and affordable for everyone, forever.

Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch says Labour is preparing for a general election as early as May 2027, despite the prime minister ruling out an early contest.

Just last week Andy Burnham said he would not call a national vote before 2029, despite speculation that Labour's revival in the polls could tempt him to go early.

But Badenoch said the fact that so many of the pledges in his conference speech would not come into place until after the next general election points to a spring vote.

Ahead of the Conservative party conference next week, the leader of the opposition said: "We could be having a general election next May."

She added:

All the policies he announced are for after an election. So if he's not calling an election, why is he talking about things happening in 2030?

He says a lot of things with a smile but I actually think that he's got very different plans for us and for our country.

She added:

This is an era of political volatility and multi-party politics. When an election is called and I do think Andy Burnham is going to call an election sooner than he is saying.

Talk of an early election had grown during the last week after polls showed Labour pulling into the lead with support in the low 20s, and the Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck a few points behind them.

Westminster sources said Downing Street advisers and MPs had been discussing the merits of an early poll but that even though the right was split, Labour would be at risk of losing its majority and having to form a coalition.

In other developments: