Anne-Marie Trevelyan was Minister for Defence Procurement 2019-20 and Minister for the Indo-Pacific 2022-24.
One of the most important challenges facing governments around the world – to underpin economic growth and innovation, and to protect our resilience and economic security – is how we deliver major projects that provide real value for money, not just the cheapest option.
Megaprojects enable governments to turn ambition into reality. Infrastructure that powers our economies, defence capabilities that protect our citizens, energy systems that underpin our prosperity, and critical national infrastructure that ensures we can keep our societies functioning, even under pressure or under fire.
Yet despite their importance, megaprojects are synonymous with a litany of problems: cost overruns, delays, changing requirements, and outcomes that often fall short of original expectations. At times of fiscal constraint and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, as we are at the moment, these failures carry real consequences. They waste scarce public resources, undermine public confidence, and delay the benefits that citizens expect and need.
Traditionally, value for money has been assessed using a broad range of measures. We rightly ask whether a project is affordable, whether it can be delivered, whether it is aligned with policy objectives, and whether it will achieve the outcomes for which it was designed.
The Treasury Green Book considers net social value, whole-life costs, risk, optimism bias, and wider strategic benefits. It does recognise a fundamental truth: value for money is not the same as choosing the lowest-cost option. Instead, it is about achieving the greatest possible public value from every pound invested. But the reality may not turn out as hoped. So as the world changes, our understanding of value for money must evolve as well.
Today, we face new challenges that were not always prominent in traditional project appraisal. Energy security. Supply chain resilience. Cyber threats. Strategic competition. Industrial sovereignty. The ability to withstand shocks and recover quickly when disruption occurs.
Take energy infrastructure. Recent geopolitical events – and watching live on TV the Ukrainian lived experience of power outages and families having to live in sub-zero temperatures for weeks at a time – have highlighted the risks associated with excessive dependence on imported energy and fragile international supply chains. Governments are investing in nuclear power, small modular reactors, renewable generation, sustainable biomass, and domestic energy production – but not at the pace that would provide assurance to protecting critical national infrastructure.
Some of these investments may appear expensive in the short term and create difficulties in progressing at pace. But they provide strategic value that conventional cost calculations do not always capture. They reduce vulnerability to hostile actors, strengthen national resilience, improve energy security, and help shield consumers and industry from global market disruption.
The same principle applies to investments in electricity networks, grid capacity, fuel refining, and energy storage. Their value extends beyond simple economic return. They provide continuity during crises, protection against coercion, and confidence that critical services can continue operating when they are needed most. The cost of failing to protect or be adequately prepared will be exorbitant – as Covid demonstrated.
The defence sector faces similar challenges. Maintaining sovereign industrial capability, strengthening munitions production, securing critical supply chains of materials needed and in short global supply, and investing in domestic manufacturing can appear costly when viewed through a narrow financial lens. But the cost of lacking these capabilities during a conflict or major international crisis would be immeasurably greater. And we would take the economic hit for that – as many small countries’ economies during Covid when they simply found themselves closed off from normal trade routes.
Defence readiness, like energy resilience, is effectively an insurance policy. We hope we never need to rely on it, but its absence becomes painfully evident when circumstances demand it. We ensure our homes and cars in case of disaster. We hope those premiums will not have to be called on, but we know that we have protection for our families and children as a result.
Too often, megaprojects begin with optimistic assumptions, immature designs, and unrealistic expectations. Cost estimates are produced before risks are fully understood. Schedules are established before technical complexity has been properly assessed. Organisations seeking approval can be incentivised to understate challenges and overstate benefits in order to secure funding. The result is predictable. Costs rise. Timelines slip. Confidence falls.
Governance arrangements can make matters worse. Ministers and project leaders are under pressure to demonstrate progress quickly. Delivery begins before risks are adequately understood. In highly complex sectors such as defence, energy, and critical national infrastructure, this can create problems that become increasingly expensive to resolve later. Multiple layers of approvals, reviews, and assurance processes can blur accountability and slow decision-making. Officialdom becomes focused on navigating governance rather than delivering outcomes.
The consequences are familiar across government. Projects require additional funding. Schedules are re-baselined. Scope is reduced. Benefits are delayed. And ultimately, public trust is weakened. And this has long-term consequences for the robustness of our democracy, that most precious of all the freedoms we hope our governments will protect.
We must recognise that value for money in the 21st century means more than balancing a spreadsheet. It means investing in resilience. It means strengthening sovereign capability. It means protecting critical infrastructure. And it means ensuring that future generations inherit systems that are secure, reliable and capable of supporting national prosperity. The true measure of a megaproject is not simply whether it comes in on budget. It is whether it delivers at pace to assure enduring economic, social and strategic value.
In an increasingly uncertain world, successful megaproject delivery is not just a matter of public finance. It is a cornerstone of national resilience, national security, and national success. The outcome achieved at pace needs to be the primary and driving focus for government, Parliamentarians and citizens. The clock is ticking on protecting our economy, our citizens and our way of life.