Summer visitors to Brighton have no doubt left refreshed by the sea breezes and the sharp tang of the pink candyfloss picked up on the pier in a moment of summertime sadness.  But for those of us left behind this September, overdue rain clouds have already started to roll in, now wedged between the South Downs and the i360.

I’m one of the lucky few with a brolly. Perhaps because I lived in Poland and Ukraine for nine years, I have an aversion to the EDI politics still prevalent in debates in Hove Town Hall.  I joined the Conservative Party in 2016; my first leaflet was delivered in the damp for Theresa May’s miserable election; the most recent for rain-soaked Rishi.  We were the largest party in the council in February 2019 with 21 councillors; now we’re the smallest with five, if you don’t count Brighton & Hove Independents with two.  They won’t admit they’re a registered party. This decline is partly my fault.  My wife and I sold our flat to left-leaning Londoners during Covid, as did countless others.

It’s very unwise to blame the voter, but the city’s demographics have changed. The most irreligious city in the country gives solace to alternative faiths such as the Greens, Momentum or the Palestinian flag-wavers opposite Waterstones.  And as we’ve seen, these ideas are oozing out like ectoplasm, with sightings of Greens regularly haunting once true-blue Sussex.

Free spirits run through Brighton like a stick of rock. Independents jostle on both the right and the left. I won’t be surprised if some of the right-wing independents stand for Reform in May 2027.  But then they won’t be independent and will be tagged, like every 5G mast, with everything Reform stands for. Brighton is proud of its Persian grill joints, its student vibes and its City of Sanctuary strapline, despite offloading the homeless onto more gentile Eastbourne and a social housing waiting list as long as Meghan Markles’ gripes, so Reform’s refrain of repatriation may not be a successful import.

Still, we did have our quota of lamppost flags, so I wouldn’t bet against them, especially in outlying areas such as Portslade.

I’ve represented Patcham & Hollingbury Ward in the north of the city – far from the madding crowds – since 2019. We look to the hills instead. Without being presumptuous – nothing can be taken for granted in this febrile city – why do Conservatives win there? We work hard and communicate what we do via Facebook and leaflets and door knocking, the holy trinity of local politics.  But we also know that the Labour and Green vote combined would see us off. Even those who vote Conservative are probably left-leaning. We never forget that some Greens and Labour voters lend us a personal vote, hence our focus on parks and green spaces without declaring a climate catastrophe.

I’ve seen what a Theresa or a Boris can do for the local party. Can local Labour recover from Keir? Eight Labour councillors – a record? – have stood down in three years. Recent rumour has it that only certain opinions count with the leadership, and those who differ feel left out and leave. Being independent has cache here, if not political staying power.

The Greens are enjoying a warmer climate, winning three of these eight by-elections, most recently in Goldsmid Ward in central Hove where they overturned a 20 per cent Labour majority of a former mayor no less. We did meet Conservatives on the doorstep, but one was voting Reform because he disagreed with funding Ukraine.  What has that to do with the ward? I asked. No matter how many roads get resurfaced, international politics always intrude.

Greens take advantage of this and lean into Palestine resulting in very heated council exchanges, on, say, pension funds, tenuously related to the city. So Greens may see Polanski as a boon. Will Andy Burnham turn things around for Labour?  Or will this shooting star be eclipsed by his predecessor?

Labour have hardly helped their cause by boarding up libraries, adult day care centres and schools, and now full-fat lefty Andy’s flavour of the month, Tories have easier arguments to make. Labour already embraces Burnham’s brand of politics such as Local Government Reform, which we’ve campaigned against – why lose our Brighton-branded independence to a faraway mayor? Labour wants to franchise our bus service with its 90 per cent satisfaction rate. And taxing tourists in a city losing visitors is another idea being resuscitated that we hope to kill off again. Now there’s a new cash cow in town – red routes.  Shops are either arming themselves with pitchforks or closing down.  Conservatives scent that this is one Friesian too far for Labour.

So I’m feeling optimistic. The council is more cash-strapped than ever. Reform’s the new nasty party. Brexit is more of a memory. We’re not in government. And Kemi’s hitting the headlines. Greens and Labour councillors – many with wafer-thin majorities – will be scrapping like Mods and Rockers next May. Let’s hope they’re too busy to worry about us. It’s time the rain gave way to a rainbow.