Reconquista’s potential bid for political power is part of a wider European trend, in which activists are challenging far-right parties by outflanking them on issues like migration. Gonçalves has proposed revoking Portuguese citizenship from immigrants when it was awarded, in his view, “illegally” and “against the values of our nation and our identity.” 

In France, rising figures such as Sarah Knafo, a member of the European Parliament whose party is allied with the AfD, have built momentum with campaign strategies to those deployed in Saxony-Anhalt, combining far-right stances with strong visual branding.

“There’s a premium on radical rhetoric,” said Jérôme Jamin, a political science professor at Liège University in Belgium who has studied populist movements in Europe and the US. “It pays off, more than it used to.” 

Radical rebranding 

Whether the AfD’s radicalism will be a winning recipe outside their eastern German strongholds remains an open question. While it fires up the most radical segment of the electorate, it also scares off many voters. That means it can yield significant wins at the local level, but fail at the national level, where candidates need to appeal to a broader segment of the electorate. 

Germany’s mainstream parties have also vowed not to cooperate or form a coalition with the AfD. That so-called “firewall” is already making it difficult for the party to form a government in Saxony-Anhalt, where it is three seats short of an absolute majority. At the national level, where it is polling at 28%, the possibility looks far out of reach.

In France, far-right firebrand and polemicist Eric Zemmour tried to outflank Marine Le Pen, polling ahead of her in the early stages of the 2022 presidential campaign, only to crash in the actual election.