4. The EU budget: Deal-making, not a deal

The 2028-2034 EU budget is not formally on Friday’s agenda, but leaders are expected to discuss it on the sidelines. A new negotiating document, setting out possible compromises, is expected around Nov. 21 ahead of the summit.

No breakthrough is expected in Dublin. Merz has signaled he will use the gathering for bilateral talks, including with Macron.

What to watch: Signs that major contributors and governments threatening to block a deal are narrowing their differences.

5. The ECB race: A wider jobs bargain

After a first chat on Thursday in Dublin, Macron and Merz are expected to discuss the race to replace European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and former Dutch central banker Klaas Knot are the leading contenders.

The presidency is part of a broader contest over three senior appointments, with Germany’s Isabel Schnabel and Ireland’s Philip Lane also due to leave the ECB’s Executive Board in 2027. Paris and Berlin both want the chief economist post, according to two officials briefed on the discussions. One suggested Germany could secure it by backing Hernández de Cos, who is seen as less hawkish than Knot.

A deal is expected at the Nov. 26-27 summit. Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and Dutch leader Rob Jetten — both backing their country’s candidates — will miss Dublin amid domestic political pressures.

What to watch: Whether Macron and Merz begin trading support for the ECB’s top jobs ahead of November.

Hans von der Burchard, Giorgio Leali and Seb Starcevic contributed to this report.